Macro

2026-10-05 21:41 ET

Valuation

Elevated

CAPE 48.8 · Buffett 287%

Cycle

Expansion

Sahm 0.00 · 10y−2y +0.47 pp

Mood

Ordinary

VIX 15 · HY OAS 3.10%

Buffett287%

CAPE48.8

S&P P/E44.2

E/P − 10y-3.0 pp

Fed funds3.88%

30y5.63%

10y5.28%

30y mtg7.28%

10y−2y+0.47 pp

Sahm0.00

CPI3.4%

Core PCE3.0%

M2 YoY5.7%

VIX15.3

HY OAS3.10%

S&P7,774

Valuation of the field

Buffett indicator — Buffett indicator

Shiller P/E (CAPE) — Shiller P/E (CAPE)

S&P TTM P/E — S&P TTM P/E

Rates & the curve

Fed policy — Fed policy

Treasury yields — Treasury yields

Yield curve — Yield curve

Prime & mortgages — Prime & mortgages

The cycle

GDP & unemployment — GDP & unemployment

Sahm rule — Sahm rule

Prices & money

Inflation — Inflation

Money stock — Money stock

Mr. Market’s mood

Indexes — Indexes

VIX — VIX